Grand Slams are best of five for the men’s draw. That single rule change alters the competitive structure enough that Slam results and tour results are only loosely related.
Why upsets fall
A best-of-three match can be decided by one hot set. Over five sets, variance has more opportunity to average out, and the better player wins more often.
This is why Slam draws tend to hold to seeding further than Masters draws, and why the same players keep reaching the second week.
What it rewards
Fitness over four hours, obviously, but more specifically the ability to maintain first-serve percentage in the fourth set. That is where matches are actually lost.
Recovery between matches. A player who wins in straight sets in round two is in a materially different position for round four than one who went five.
Patience. Going for a low-percentage shot at 3-3 in the first set is a much worse decision over five sets than three, because there is time for a percentage approach to pay.
What it costs a break
In best of three a single break can decide a match. In best of five it is one of perhaps eight or nine breaks across the afternoon, which lowers the pressure on any individual one and rewards players who do not panic on serve.
The women’s draw
Best of three throughout, which is one reason the women’s Slam draws have historically produced more first-week upsets — a structural feature, not a comment on the field.
Reported at ESPN; analysis ours.
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